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Who might buy BASF Coatings? Industry views beyond Carlyle
According to recent reports from Reuters and the Financial Times, private equity firm Carlyle is the current frontrunner for acquiring BASF’s coatings division – valued at approximately EUR 7 billion. Industry insiders, however, believe that strategic buyers like Sherwin-Williams, PPG, Akzo Nobel, Nippon Paint or Axalta could also play a role. Here’s a breakdown of their chances and why, according to those interviewed, an investor might still be the most likely outcome.
Reuters reports that Carlyle has emerged as the leading bidder in BASF’s sale process. The coatings business generated about EUR 4.3 billion in sales last year and employs about 12,000 people, according to the latest Top 25 ranking of European Coatings. Other financial investors have expressed interest, but no confirmed strategic bid has yet been made public.
Insights from industry insiders
The editorial staff of European Coatings spoke with multiple people in the coatings industry. Their views include:
- A BASF Coatings insider believes that an investor is regarded internally as the most plausible option; a swift deal is internally expected.
- Others argue Sherwin-Williams would be the ideal strategic acquirer: they have long sought a European presence and possess the financial capacity for such a transaction.
- PPG is widely considered unlikely — in conversation, several people cited antitrust concerns, noting that PPG has already purchased several automotive coatings businesses.
- Akzo Nobel is generally seen as unable to afford such a large acquisition at this moment, due to current costs, debt, and other strategic obligations.
Chances by company
Here is an assessment of strategic buyers from the coatings industry. The six companies are ahead of BASF Coatings in the global ranking of all coatings manufacturers in terms of sales.
| Company | Strengths / Pros | Weaknesses / Cons | Rough Probability* |
| Sherwin-Williams | Strong balance sheet, large scale, existing operations in decorative and industrial coatings; keen interest in Europe. | Regulatory risk; high purchase price; integration of large, distinct business units. | 15-25 % |
| PPG Industries | Expertise in industrial and automotive coatings; significant acquisition experience. | Strong antitrust exposure; overlapping operations; financial/purchase-size challenges. | 10-20 % |
| Akzo Nobel | European base, strong brands, prior M&A experience. | Limited financial slack; undergoing cost controls and portfolio adjustments; shareholder pressure. | 10-15 % |
| Nippon Paint | Financially solid; growing global footprint; recent acquisitions show ambition. | Distance, regulatory hurdles, FX risks, integration complexity. | 10-20 % |
| RPM International | Active in bolt-on acquisitions; flexible, nimble. | Smaller scale; limited appetite for very large tickets; mismatch in some business segments. | 5-10 % |
| Axalta Coating Systems | Specialist in automotive/refinish coatings; technical capability. | Market cap and balance sheet scale are small relative to a EUR 7 billion deal; leverage risk. | 1-5 % |
*These estimates are based on conversations with industry insiders and publicly known data.
Why an investor seems favoured
- Financial firepower and speed: Private equity firms like Carlyle can move more quickly than strategic buyers and are less constrained by product overlap or integration issues.
- Risk mitigation for BASF: Selling to an investor allows BASF to offload the business cleanly, without long-term obligations that a strategic owner might assume.
- Greater flexibility: Investors are more likely to accept carve-outs, plant sales, and restructuring, while strategic firms must consider workforce, brand, and regulatory commitments.
- BASF’s need for capital: As Reuters reports, the proceeds may enable earlier share buybacks and re-alignment of BASF’s portfolio.
Conclusion
Based on available reporting and conversations, Carlyle appears currently as the most likely acquirer of BASF’s coatings division. Strategic bidders like Sherwin-Williams or Nippon Paint have credible paths — but would need favourable regulatory outcomes, willingness to pay a premium, and an appetite for integration risks. PPG is generally viewed as unlikely due to antitrust concerns; Akzo Nobel is seen as financially constrained. This is not a definitive prediction, but a reasoned assessment based on current information and insider perspectives.
