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Interview: “Inflation and exchange rates are key to understanding polymer import prices”
Global disruptions such as the Covid-19 pandemic and energy price volatility have profoundly influenced the import pricing of acrylic and styrene polymers in emerging markets. Dr. Chifaa Kardous, Export Manager at Asal Kimya speaks about her study on polymer prices, highlighting how macroeconomic factors like inflation, exchange rates, and crude oil prices shape cost structures and provide actionable insights for procurement and strategic planning.
Why did you choose this particular mix of markets of Turkey, Egypt, South Africa, Malaysia, Thailand, Poland, Brazil, Chile, Philippines, and Pakistan? How does do their economic structures affect import patterns?
Dr. Chifaa Kardous: The study examines a set of emerging and developing markets selected for their diversity in industrial and trade structures. It focuses on acrylic and styrene polymers in primary forms, as these are widely traded raw materials with broad industrial applications and strong relevance for the coatings and chemical sectors. Their cross-market presence and sensitivity to macroeconomic fluctuations make them particularly suitable for analysing import pricing behavior. These economies were chosen instead of advanced markets because their higher import dependence, greater exposure to external volatility, and more constrained domestic production capacity result in more pronounced pricing responses. By analysing CIF prices across importer–partner combinations, the study captures variations in demand–supply interactions under distinct macroeconomic environments. This comparative approach enables a structured assessment of pricing behavior across economies with heterogeneous economic characteristics.
How did extraordinary events from 2018 to 2024 affect the macroeconomic–pricing relationship?
Kardous: Between 2018 and 2024, a series of global disruptions significantly altered the relationship between macroeconomic indicators and import pricing. The Covid-19 pandemic, in particular, introduced severe demand shocks, logistical interruptions, and production delays that reshaped global trade flows. Alongside these effects, energy price volatility and broader supply chain constraints consistently influenced cost patterns. The analysis shows that inflation and exchange rate fluctuations emerged as the strongest and most immediate drivers of CIF price adjustments. It further indicates that crude oil price shifts had delayed effects, reflecting the time required for global supply chains to transmit cost changes into import prices. Overall, the findings demonstrate that extraordinary shocks amplified the sensitivity of polymer pricing to macroeconomic conditions, though the magnitude of impact differed across markets.
Which macroeconomic indicators should industry professionals monitor closely?
Kardous: The analysis demonstrates that inflation, exchange rates, and crude oil prices are the most influential determinants of polymer import prices. The results confirm that these indicators exert statistically significant effects across both acrylic and styrene polymers, underscoring their central role in shaping CIF cost. The study also shows that GDP growth rates and movements in the Baltic Dry Index provide valuable context by reflecting broader demand and shipping conditions. However, their influence is generally more indirect and subject to time lags compared to the immediate effects of inflation and exchange rate fluctuations. The findings suggest that systematic monitoring of these variables is essential for anticipating import cost movements. In practical terms, close attention to these indicators enables more accurate forecasting, more resilient procurement planning, and more effective strategic decision-making.
What can visitors expect from the presentation at the Pacific Coatings Show?
Kardous: The presentation will provide a structured overview of import pricing trends for acrylic and styrene polymers in selected emerging and developing economies. It will show how macroeconomic conditions shape differences in costs across markets and product categories. The discussion will connect these patterns to broader trade structures and industrial characteristics, addressing a topic that has received limited attention in the chemical sector. Attendees will take away practical insights into the factors that drive import price variability.
Event tip
Dr Chifaa Kardous will present her findings at the Pacific Coatings Show Conference, which will take place October 29-31 in Jakarta, Indonesia.
