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BASF raises full-year 2026 earnings outlook after strong Q2 results
BASF has reported preliminary figures for the second quarter of 2026, with EBITDA before special items reaching EUR 2.4 billion – considerably above both analyst consensus and the prior-year figure. The German chemicals group has also raised its full-year 2026 earnings outlook, citing better-than-expected business development.
BASF has released preliminary financial figures for the second quarter of 2026, reporting sales of EUR 17.2 billion – a 16 % increase compared with EUR 14.8 billion in Q2 2025. The growth was driven primarily by higher prices, which contributed 11 percentage points, and higher volumes, adding seven percentage points. Currency and portfolio effects each had an offsetting impact of one percentage point. Analyst consensus compiled by Vara had projected sales of EUR 16.5 billion for the quarter.
EBITDA before special items for Q2 2026 reached EUR 2.4 billion, considerably exceeding the analyst consensus of EUR 2.1 billion and the prior-year figure of EUR 1.6 billion. The increase was attributed mainly to higher earnings across all segments with the exception of Surface Technologies. Among individual segments, Materials, Industrial Solutions, and Agricultural Solutions considerably exceeded analyst estimates, while Nutrition & Care slightly surpassed expectations. Chemicals and Surface Technologies came in significantly below analyst forecasts.
Net income boosted by coatings transaction with Carlyle
Net income for Q2 2026 is expected to reach EUR 4.1 billion, significantly above the analyst consensus of EUR 2.4 billion and far exceeding the EUR 79 million recorded in Q2 2025. The substantial increase was primarily attributable to a disposal gain of EUR 3.9 billion before taxes from the coatings transaction with Carlyle, which closed on 30 June 2026. The associated tax expense is expected to amount to a mid-triple-digit million-euro figure.
Free cash flow for Q2 2026 is expected to be minus EUR 0.2 billion, compared with plus EUR 0.5 billion in Q2 2025. BASF attributed this decline mainly to higher capital tied up as a result of higher raw material prices. Cash flows from operating activities are expected at EUR 0.5 billion, with payments for property, plant and equipment and intangible assets of EUR 0.7 billion.
Raised outlook reflects improved business performance
In light of the stronger-than-anticipated results, BASF has increased its full-year 2026 outlook for EBITDA before special items. The company now expects a figure of between EUR 6.9 billion and EUR 7.7 billion, up from the previous range of EUR 6.2 billion to EUR 7.0 billion. The full-year 2025 figure stood at EUR 6.6 billion. The forecasted range remains broad, reflecting continuing geopolitical uncertainties. The outlook for free cash flow remains unchanged at between EUR 1.5 billion and EUR 2.3 billion.
BASF’s updated macroeconomic assumptions for 2026 include global GDP growth of 2.5 %, industrial production growth of 2.0 %, and chemical production growth of 1.8 %. The company now assumes an average euro/dollar exchange rate of USD 1.17 per euro and an average oil price (Brent crude) of USD 80 per barrel. The company noted that the development of global economic and chemical markets in the second half of 2026 remains highly uncertain, depending in considerable part on the outcome of negotiations between the United States and Iran, particularly regarding access to the Strait of Hormuz for energy and petrochemical feedstock transport.
