South American market: navigating moderate growth

South America entered 2026 with early signs of economic stabilisation, although growth remains modest and uneven across the region. Current projections point to an average GDP expansion of around 2.5%, supported by the gradual recovery of Argentina, relative stability in Brazil, and selective growth in countries such as Uruguay, Paraguay, Peru, and Colombia. Under this scenario, the coatings market is expected to grow slightly above GDP in most countries, driven primarily by new construction, residential maintenance, home refurbishments, and industrial maintenance, rather than by large-scale capacity expansion.

By 2030, the South American coatings market is projected to approach 4 billion liters, generating revenues exceeding USD 12 billion, increasingly shaped by a transition from volume-driven growth to value-driven strategies focused on margins, differentiation, and performance. The regional market has demonstrated resilience despite persistent inflationary pressures, currency volatility, and the high cost of imported raw materials. In response, companies have moved beyond standardized regional approaches, adopting country-specific strategies centered on portfolio rationalization, sustainability, and technical differentiation.Competitive advantage is increasingly built on total cost of ownership (TCO), regulatory compliance, and closer engagement with professional applicators and industrial customers.

Growth rates vary significantly across segments. The most relevant structural trends include the gradual recovery of the automotive OEM sector in Brazil and Argentina, and the consistent ­expansion of industrial maintenance coatings across most markets, which continues to outperform overall market growth. Performance-driven demand, ­environmental regulations, and the adoption of low-VOC and high-durability systems are reshaping product portfolios and investment priorities.

Country perspectives

Brazil remains the primary growth anchor for the region. While construction and residential maintenance are expected to expand at moderate rates through 2027, automotive coatings and industrial maintenance are likely to lead industrial paint consumption. Infrastructure, energy, and logistics investments continue to support ­demand for high-performance protective systems, reinforcing Brazil’s role as both a volume and technology hub, despite an overall growth rate below average.

Despite recent reforms and improving GDP growth in 2025, Argentina continues to experience subdued consumption and industrial activity. As is well known, production declined across several segments in 2024, due to inflationary pressure and an industrial slowdown.

Elevated inventories in distribution channels and the gradual return of consumer confidence are expected to delay a full market rebound for 2026, and beyond. Colombia is consolidating its position as the second-largest coatings market in South America, with volumes projected to surpass 400 million liters in 2030. Growth is supported by urbanization, housing demand, and strengthening middle class, benefiting both the architectural and industrial segments. Chile remains a mature and specialized market, with strong positions in protective, marine, and industrial coatings. Growth continues at a moderate pace, increasingly driven by performance, durability, and environmental compliance rather than price competition.

Paraguay shows strong expansion supported by public investment and ­civil construction, while Uruguay maintains a stable, quality-driven market focused on technical service and sustainability.Peru is expected to return to moderate growth supported by infrastructure and industrial recovery. Guyana and Suriname, although small in absolute volume, stand out for high two digits growth rates driven by oil, gas, and offshore infrastructure demand.

Strategic outlook

In a moderate growth environment, the coatings market in South America does not grow despite uncertainty — it evolves through it. Competitive positioning increasingly depends on value-based pricing, localized decision-making, sustainable portfolios, and technical service as a differentiator. At the regional level, geopolitical tensions, evolving trade regulations, and raw material volatility remain key external variables shaping medium-term projections. Under these conditions, strategic flexibility and disciplined capital allocation are becoming as critical as scale and global brand presence for long-term success.

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